Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/1893/17655
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dc.contributor.authorGarrett, Karen Aen_UK
dc.contributor.authorDobson, Andrewen_UK
dc.contributor.authorKroschel, Jurgenen_UK
dc.contributor.authorNatarajan, Balaen_UK
dc.contributor.authorOrlandini, Simoneen_UK
dc.contributor.authorTonnang, Henri E Zen_UK
dc.contributor.authorValdivia, Corinneen_UK
dc.date.accessioned2018-04-19T23:53:27Z-
dc.date.available2018-04-19T23:53:27Zen_UK
dc.date.issued2013-03en_UK
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1893/17655-
dc.description.abstractIf climate change scenarios include higher variance in weather variables, this can have important effects on pest and disease risk beyond changes in mean weather conditions. We developed a theoretical model of yield loss to diseases and pests as a function of weather, and used this model to evaluate the effects of variance in conduciveness to loss and the effects of the color of time series of weather conduciveness to loss. There were two qualitatively different results for changes in system variance. If median conditions are conducive to loss, increasing system variance decreases mean yield loss. On the other hand, if median conditions are intermediate or poor for disease or pest development, such that conditions are conducive to yield loss no more than half the time, increasing system variance increases mean yield loss. Time series for weather conduciveness that are darker pink (have higher levels of temporal autocorrelation) produce intermediate levels of yield loss less commonly. A linked model of decision-making based on either past or current information about yield loss also shows changes in the performance of decision rules as a function of system variance. Understanding patterns of variance can improve scenario analysis for climate change and help make adaptation strategies such as decision support systems and insurance programs more effective.en_UK
dc.language.isoenen_UK
dc.publisherElsevieren_UK
dc.relationGarrett KA, Dobson A, Kroschel J, Natarajan B, Orlandini S, Tonnang HEZ & Valdivia C (2013) The effects of climate variability and the color of weather time series on agricultural diseases and pests, and on decisions for their management. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 170, pp. 216-227. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.04.018en_UK
dc.rightsThe publisher does not allow this work to be made publicly available in this Repository. Please use the Request a Copy feature at the foot of the Repository record to request a copy directly from the author. You can only request a copy if you wish to use this work for your own research or private study.en_UK
dc.rights.urihttp://www.rioxx.net/licenses/under-embargo-all-rights-reserveden_UK
dc.subjectColored noiseen_UK
dc.subjectDecision-making under uncertaintyen_UK
dc.subjectEarly warning systemsen_UK
dc.subjectEnvironmental variabilityen_UK
dc.subjectEnvironmental time seriesen_UK
dc.subjectGlobal warmingen_UK
dc.titleThe effects of climate variability and the color of weather time series on agricultural diseases and pests, and on decisions for their managementen_UK
dc.typeJournal Articleen_UK
dc.rights.embargodate3000-01-01en_UK
dc.rights.embargoreason[The effects of climate variability and the color of weather...pdf] The publisher does not allow this work to be made publicly available in this Repository therefore there is an embargo on the full text of the work.en_UK
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.04.018en_UK
dc.citation.jtitleAgricultural and Forest Meteorologyen_UK
dc.citation.issn0168-1923en_UK
dc.citation.volume170en_UK
dc.citation.spage216en_UK
dc.citation.epage227en_UK
dc.citation.publicationstatusPublisheden_UK
dc.citation.peerreviewedRefereeden_UK
dc.type.statusVoR - Version of Recorden_UK
dc.author.emailandrew.dobson@stir.ac.uken_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationKansas State Universityen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationBiological and Environmental Sciencesen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationInternational Potato Centeren_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationKansas State Universityen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationUniversity of Florenceen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationInternational Potato Centeren_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationUniversity of Missouri - Columbiaen_UK
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000315546700019en_UK
dc.identifier.scopusid2-s2.0-84872908172en_UK
dc.identifier.wtid887316en_UK
dcterms.dateAccepted2013-03-31en_UK
dc.date.filedepositdate2013-11-12en_UK
rioxxterms.typeJournal Article/Reviewen_UK
rioxxterms.versionVoRen_UK
local.rioxx.authorGarrett, Karen A|en_UK
local.rioxx.authorDobson, Andrew|en_UK
local.rioxx.authorKroschel, Jurgen|en_UK
local.rioxx.authorNatarajan, Bala|en_UK
local.rioxx.authorOrlandini, Simone|en_UK
local.rioxx.authorTonnang, Henri E Z|en_UK
local.rioxx.authorValdivia, Corinne|en_UK
local.rioxx.projectInternal Project|University of Stirling|https://isni.org/isni/0000000122484331en_UK
local.rioxx.freetoreaddate3000-01-01en_UK
local.rioxx.licencehttp://www.rioxx.net/licenses/under-embargo-all-rights-reserved||en_UK
local.rioxx.filenameThe effects of climate variability and the color of weather...pdfen_UK
local.rioxx.filecount1en_UK
local.rioxx.source0168-1923en_UK
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