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http://hdl.handle.net/1893/16847| Appears in Collections: | Accounting and Finance Journal Articles |
| Peer Review Status: | Refereed |
| Title: | Futures basis, inventory and commodity price volatility: An empirical analysis |
| Author(s): | Symeonidis, Lazaros Prokopczuk, Marcel Brooks, Chris Lazar, Emese |
| Contact Email: | lazaros.symeonidis@stir.ac.uk |
| Keywords: | Forward curves Inventory Commodity price volatility Theory of storage Convenience yield |
| Issue Date: | Nov-2012 |
| Date Deposited: | 7-Oct-2013 |
| Citation: | Symeonidis L, Prokopczuk M, Brooks C & Lazar E (2012) Futures basis, inventory and commodity price volatility: An empirical analysis. Economic Modelling, 29 (6), pp. 2651-2663. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2012.07.016 |
| Abstract: | We employ a large dataset of physical inventory data on 21 different commodities for the period 1993-2011 to empirically analyze the behavior of commodity prices and their volatility as predicted by the theory of storage. We examine two main issues. First, we analyze the relationship between inventory and the shape of the forward curve. Low (high) inventory is associated with forward curves in backwardation (contango), as the theory of storage predicts. Second, we show that price volatility is a decreasing function of inventory for the majority of commodities in our sample. This effect is more pronounced in backwardated markets. Our findings are robust with respect to alternative inventory measures and over the recent commodity price boom. |
| DOI Link: | 10.1016/j.econmod.2012.07.016 |
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| Licence URL(s): | http://www.rioxx.net/licenses/under-embargo-all-rights-reserved |
| File | Description | Size | Format | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| futures basis inventory and commodity price volatility.pdf | Fulltext - Published Version | 323.1 kB | Adobe PDF | Under Permanent Embargo Request a copy |
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