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Appears in Collections:Management, Work and Organisation Journal Articles
Peer Review Status: Refereed
Title: The Origins and Evolution of Scenario Techniques in Long Range Business Planning
Authors: Bradfield, Ron
Wright, George
Burt, George
Cairns, George
van, der Heijden Kees
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Issue Date: Oct-2005
Publisher: Elsevier
Citation: Bradfield R, Wright G, Burt G, Cairns G & van der Heijden K (2005) The Origins and Evolution of Scenario Techniques in Long Range Business Planning, Futures, 37 (8), pp. 795-812.
Abstract: Scenario Planning has been around for more than 30 years and during this period a multitude of techniques and methodologies have developed, resulting in what has been described as a ‘methodological chaos' which is unlikely to disappear in the near future (A. Martelli, Scenario building and scenario planning: state of the art and prospects of evolution, Futures Research Quarterly Summer (2001)). This is reflected in the fact that literature reveals an abundance of different and at times contradictory definitions, characteristics, principles and methodological ideas about scenarios. It has been suggested that a pressing need for the future of scenarios is amongst other things, to resolve the confusion over ‘the definitions and methods of scenarios'. This paper makes a beginning at this need by tracing the origins and growth of scenarios and the subsequent evolution of the various methodologies; a classification of the methodologies into three main schools of techniques is given and the salient features of these schools are compared and contrasted.
Type: Journal Article
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Rights: The publisher does not allow this work to be made publicly available in this Repository. Please use the Request a Copy feature at the foot of the Repository record to request a copy directly from the author. You can only request a copy if you wish to use this work for your own research or private study.
Affiliation: University of Strathclyde
University of Strathclyde
Management Work and Organisation
University of Strathclyde
University of Strathclyde

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